Best Odds Guaranteed. It sounds good but what does it really mean for us punters?
And what will Best Odds Guaranteed do for you in practice?
I’ve been recommending using Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG for short) bookmakers to subscribers to my Winning Racing Tips service ever since they started running the offer.
It was immediately clear that it was a very nice concession. As you can take price without having to think if its likely to be a drifter or a steamer, since if it drifts to a bigger Starting Price, you’ll get paid that bigger price.
At first it was just one or two firms and then soon it was almost all the main bookmakers that you’ll see on a comparison site such as Oddschecker. Punters had it pretty good, but soon enough some punters started using the bookies generosity against then with a system designed to take full advantage of Best Odds Guaranteed, effectively beating the bookmakers over round. Now bookmakers don’t like winning punters, we all know that, but they probably hate punters that beat them at their own game even more. So many people found that they had their rights to BOG prices removed and/or accounts restricted/closed. Bookmakers Totesport, StanJames and Corals decided simply to withdraw their best odds price promise altogether. Although Stan James do now offer BOG on board prices, that is those derived from the on course shows from about 10 mins before the off time.
What we are left with now is 7 firms offering BOG prices: Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddypower, WilliamHill, BetVictor, Boylesports and Betfred. That should be plenty for most punters and even those that stake larger amounts should be able to use BOG prices provided they keep their heads under the parapet by not overloading any one account and using non BOG bookmakers or Betfair when a BOG price isn’t important.
One type of punter that bookmakers normally welcome with open arms is a favourite backer. This to them is the type of punter that is looking for winners not value, the type that will invariably make them a nice profit in the long run. So backing short priced favourites, often odds-on shots is quite unlikely to draw any unwelcome attention from the bookmakers decision makers and therefore also unlikely to effect your ability to get BOG prices.
Why is this relevant?
Well I want to show you some figures from a system I’ve been proofing on my forum.
It selects clear favourites that are very often odds-on, and at least thus far, is proof that backing the right short priced favourites is far from a mugs game.
234 selections, 141 winners, 60% strike rate.
- Profit at SP: 22.73pts, 10% ROI.
- Profit betting at early prices with BOG: 44.89pts, 19% ROI.
The system has been very impressive indeed, but what I find perhaps most interesting about this is the massive differential between the SP profits and the profit using BOG prices. The profit this system makes is almost DOUBLED by using early BOG prices. It is quite clear that these selections do tend to go off at an SP that’s shorter than the best morning price. But they are not all steamers; recently we had a 5/2 winner at SP that was 15/8 best price in the morning, and that was by no means an isolated example. What this huge difference in profit means is that even if the system were to have only “broke even” at SP, we’d still be a healthy 22pts up by utilising best early prices with BOG bookmakers. It is a perfect example of how taking a best price with a BOG bookmaker can really work, and how important they are.
I am personally backing these selections myself and am nicely in front. For the time being I’m posting them free of charge on my forum here: http://bettingprofitsbulletin.com/forum/horse-racing-systems/favourites-system/