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Premier League Trades
August 23, 2014
12:24 pm
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paulr
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Gonna start taking this seriously and hope to turn a profit.
Taking some pre match positions and some inplay.
Will try and post all on here.

Today, 2nd week in Prem starts off with Villa at Home to Newcastle
Villa were ahead in only 2 of their home games at HT all season last year, a stat I'm gonna try and monetize here. They dont score many but have improved in defence, and Newcastle may struggle to break them down.
I'm playing it by backing the HT 0-0@ 2.82 £10
with £2 savers on 1-0,0-1 and backing 0-0 FT @ 9.8 with a view to trading out if possible. 
£17.50 staked.
 

August 23, 2014
12:28 pm
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paulr
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I did ok last week oppose the long odds shots in play and with the league being so new and unsettled, I'm continuing that this week with a lay of Chelsea at 1.23 for £18, will see if there's an opportunity to trade out for around half that as profit.

August 23, 2014
1:36 pm
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paulr
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made a profit on the 0-0HT market, now to close position on the FT correct score market laying the £3.50 @ 3.35 so all green, have about £30 on 0-0 to play with so will drip lay out of that to ensure a profit on that market whatever the score as the odds come in during the 2nd half.

August 23, 2014
3:21 pm
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paulr
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£28.31 profit from Villa Newcastle match. Traded out half of the 0-0 profit during the 2nd half but still made about £14 on each market.

August 23, 2014
3:56 pm
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paulr
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Play in the Everton Arsenal match will be expecting goals, only 21% of Evertons home matches were 0-0 at HT , last season.
Lay 0-0 HT @ 3.0 request to keep when in play. 

Prob lay current score at HT for small stakes as well so long as 3 goals havent been scored. 

August 23, 2014
6:27 pm
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paulr
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Lost £3 on Chelsea match as didn't trade out before they went 1-0 up, bit greedy there should have just taken the small profit.

£7.60 profit from Everton Arsenal HT score market.
Will probably call it a day now.

Will likely be laying Spurs tomorrow with a view to trading out. 

August 23, 2014
7:18 pm
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paulr
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Have layed the 2-1....
ooops too late to post but just made another few quid 

August 24, 2014
10:05 am
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paulr
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Layed Spurs @ 1.53 for £10.6 liability

August 24, 2014
4:32 pm
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paulr
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Loss on Spurs, going to back Man Utd @ Evens for £7.50 if get matched

August 25, 2014
8:30 pm
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paulr
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City Liverpool, layed the HT 0-0 @1.81 for £10

August 25, 2014
11:00 pm
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paulr
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Villa Newcastle +28.31
Chelsea Leicester -£3 (should have gotten out as Leicester held them for 63mins)
Everton Arsenal  +11.55 
Tottenham QPR -10.60
Sunderland Man Utd -7.50
City Liverpool +9.50
£28.26 Profit over the weekends matches.
 

August 29, 2014
9:57 pm
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paulr
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At least 4 or 5 plays this weekend.
Opening with a lay on Man Utd
Easy to look at the team sheets and argue 4/6 is a nice price for the away side, who won more away than at home last season.
But they are so at sixes and sevens right now I can only oppose them.
Burnley let only 14 in all last season at home in the Championship and might make Utd work for anything here. Turf Moor isn't somewhere you particularly want to be travelling when the worlds eyes are on you and a low risk lay is the order of the day for me here.

£15 lay Utd @ 1.66 

August 30, 2014
1:32 pm
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paulr
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Although this is looking farily even, will start to come out of the trade at Evens on Utd, and be out for even profit by 70mins if poss, or earlier if Burnley score, will reduce some liability at HT if still 0-0.

August 30, 2014
2:13 pm
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paulr
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Out of the match now: http://screencast.com/t/YPlcx4Xk

August 30, 2014
2:38 pm
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paulr
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City v Stoke
Lay Man City @ 1.24 £15 (£3.6 liability)

Newc v Palace
Back HT 0-0 £7.50 @2.88 , & HT 0-1 £2.50 @ 8.8
Plus Lay Newcastle @  1.75 for £10

Everton v Chelsea 
Lay Chelsea @ 2.1 £15 (16.5 liability)

Other matches no opening plays, but possibly in running/HT. 

August 30, 2014
3:05 pm
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paulr
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Greened up on Newcastle match odds by backing them for £5, will have to sweat on the HT score for a while now, will lose on that with any goal now.

August 30, 2014
3:54 pm
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paulr
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Got rid of liability on City.

August 30, 2014
5:09 pm
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paulr
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Burnley Utd +6
City Stoke +7.60
Newcastle Palace -10,+4.75 

August 30, 2014
11:27 pm
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paulr
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Chelsea -16.50, no way to trade out of that!

Sunday:
Villa Hull
Draw/Villa 2.5 @ 6.0
0-0 2.5 @ 8.0
HT 0-0 10 @ 2.54 

September 1, 2014
10:51 am
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paulr
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-15 on Villa.
Bit annoyed as had Lay on Spurs down in my notes but didn't find the time to trade/post.
-23.15 on the weekend. 

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