Value Football Betting – Review and Trial

Value Football Betting is the new sister site to Goal Profits. In this review of Value Football Betting I’ll cover what it is, what you can expect and hopefully show whether its any good and worth your investment. (My hope is that it will be, otherwise quite frankly I wouldn’t be wasting my time writing about it!)

Whereas Steve Brown’s Goal Profits concentrates on trading football, and systems that operate “in-play” for the most part, this collaboration with Keven Laverick concentrates on straight fixed odds bets, or as he calls them “set and forget”.
This is better from my point of view for a few reasons, it should be easier to review performance and it certainly is more suitable for my betting style and available time.

Kevin has a degree in pure Mathematics and Statistics and is also said to have hit the Betfair Premium charge, after making what Betfair consider to be too much for their liking! That’s all very well I’m sure you’ll agree, and of course its comforting to know that you’re dealing with someone who knows his stuff and has “been there and got the t-shirt” so to speak.

That said I’m into results, and I want to know what this can do for me and you.

The Manual
This is your first port of call when you sign up for Value Football Betting.
Its a 20 page pdf and you will need to read it before trying to find your own selections.
Covering everything about VFB and its creators it goes on to cover the database and the “value bets” page where you will find the all important value tables. Kevin gives a very workable set of guidelines to find selections but doesn’t go so far as giving rigid rules of when you should bet and when not to. There are a couple of minor contradictions within the examples of bets he shows, which does obviously beg the question of if you will also be able to pick winning selections from the tables, given the “grey area”, however I was pretty close to the same bets that Kevin made on my first try so my first impression was certainly that I should be able to replicate his success using this.
(Note: New manual has been released 6th Feb)

The Database
The database is at the heart of Value Football Betting, it covers every team in “five summer leagues and twelve winter leagues” including every game played during the last 10 years.
Its clear from looking at the data and reading about this that it isn’t simply just doing a basic calculation on how many times something, say over 2.5 goals for example, has happened for a particular team in a season. Its a little more complicated than that.
What they call “a very clever algorithm” crunches the masses of data and comes up with ratings which are then shown as “true odds”.  The current Betfair prices are then imported and a  percentage difference is shown, highlighting the “value” at that price.
It isn’t just as simple as blindly backing all those with value indicated, the manual recommends certain levels of confidence and gives guidelines in when the data to is solid and when not so. At the time of writing the database covers six markets for every match in the leagues covered.
I tend to like trends that can easily be validated through recent results, say for example Chelsea winning by two goals, Aston Villa’s low scoring matches, or Tottenham winning by a single goal. With this database you are very much putting a lot of faith in the “algorithm”, sometimes you may not see sense in the bets it throws up, and you’ll require a little faith in this calculations that go on within the software.
You can of course use this in conjunction with regular form study and analysis/opinion. For purposes of this review and trial though I’ll assume no other knowledge of the matches apart from what’s given on the site, after all most of the matches thrown up I will certainly have no opinion on anyhow.
The database/algorithm is what will make or break Value Football Betting.

Kevin’s Selections
For those that just want to make a profit, without the need to find selections, check prices etc. Kevin posts his bets from the database on the forum on VFB. This has not only proved profitable thus far, but gives a lot of credibility to the database and Kevin.
He gives his reasoning as well and that in itself is an education.
I’m personally following these bets and my results thus far are as follows:
7/12/14 -18/1/15, 46 selections 6.01pts profit from 43.6 staked for a ROI of 13.8%.
22 winners for just under a 50% strike rate. I did miss a selection which lost it should be noted.
This is below the previous form of 25pts profit from 58 selections during the period of 1/11/14 – 6/12/14 but it is probably just balancing out and overall I’m optimistic at this stage.
Despite a number of followers prices are generally holding up and if you cant get the quoted price I’ve found so far that I can usually get quite close to it.

My Database Picks
Here I will be picking my own selections from the database, over and above Kevin’s Selections, using the guidelines from the manual to see how it fairs with no expert knowledge.
– Update to follow by end of February.

Initial Thoughts
This looks very promising right now, but of course it is early days as the site was only “born” the back end of 2014. Certainly the markets featured have enough liquidity and I’ve found I’m able to better Betfair prices with bookmakers very often. Kevin’s selections are carrying my money and I’m reviewing performance on a month to month basis.
At £37 a month it wont cost you a lot to join me.
Here’s the link:

Update 13th February 2015
A losing run for Kevin’s Selections of only 2 winners from 17 bets from the end of January to early Feb has impacted on results, overall I’m just over 2pts down on his official selections. This kind of run really looks a bit freaky and I’m hopeful performance will pick up. For the time being I’m backing them but reviewing it on a monthly basis.
In terms of testing the database with my own selections I’m showing a marginal profit from 2 weeks worth of bets, it’ll be while longer yet before I can publish a fuller picture.

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2 Responses to Value Football Betting – Review and Trial

  1. paulr says:

    My last recorded results were 4.28pts down on Kevin’s selections and about 3pts up from my own more “loose” picks.
    Looking back my thoughts are that the database does have some merit, but also drawbacks, as sometimes IMO it will flag up statistical anomalies or selections based on small samples etc. Overall though I didn’t have the time to do a thorough long term analysis, and it kind of doesn’t suit my own football betting style which I prefer to look for more form and motivational based analysis.

  2. andy says:

    Hello Paul, Are you sill monitoring this service?

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