When I launched Winning Racing Systems in September, it was after more than a years live testing and extensive research spanning many hundreds of bets. I believe that everything was in place for the best possible chance of success with the systems. So what has happened since?
Well it has been far from plain sailing. But unlike many people in this industry I’ll not ignore losses. Triumph and disaster should be treated just the same.
Firstly the two longer priced systems.
My 2yo approach had made 85pts profit from 309 selections in the year prior to launching WRS. Since launch we’ve had 89 selections for just over a 14pt loss. Not what I wanted but we’ve been dealing with plenty of longer priced runners during the last 3 months of the 2yo calendar, overall the system has still performed well and a 14pt loss is recoverable from just one or two winners. This system is based upon Trainer stats which will however need reviewing for the new season, as we’re essentially still working on 2010/11 stats. So I’ll be looking at basically building a new system using the same blueprint for 2013.
The NH Winners system is another trainer based approach which has shown a massive ROI spanning back several years. Prior to launch the system was 80pts up from 180 selections during testing, and this only re-enforced the performance that spanned back to 2003 and over 1000 selections. After launch the system started spectacularly quickly making a 23pt profit. However it has since endured some long losing runs and currently sits at +6.9pts from 123 selections. Historically this system does have some years that are worse than others and this one still has a month and a bit to run, so this system still appears to be “working” and obviously any profit is good. One thing that has become more obvious this year is that there are plenty of others backing these though, prices are getting snapped up quickly on occasion and this will have to be monitored as it could easilly affect the long term profitability.
The Favourites System
I don’t mind saying that this is where things have gone pear shaped. Even if Gary Glitter were to release Christmas song featuring Jimmy Saville – I don’t think it’d bomb as badly as this has.
During the testing phase there were 45pts profit from 363 selections, it was clear that the system was beating SP by a considerable margin through the use of “Best Odds Gaurantees” and as such combined with the high strike rate made this on paper a very solid approach.
Sods law is a perhaps the one over riding law with betting and it certainly seems the case with this. Since launch I’ve been dumbfounded by the amount of losers this has found, at times its been like an endless torrent of odds-on losers. I haven’t examined the actual factual probability of the run we’ve endured but I don’t need to, to know that whats happened is freakishly bad. If you just picked out favourites at random you’d have to be exceptionally unlucky to have faired as badly. I have to say that in all my years betting and following systems and services, that this is one of the most dramatic downturns that I’ve seen.
Right so that’s kind of painted a picture of what its been like, but you ALWAYS have to put these things into context, the loss since launch is currently -17.55pts to BOG prices from 78 selections. Here’s what that looks like in graphical form:
To put this into better context however here’s the overall performance with the performance since 19/9 in pink:
So what’s happening here?
Do we have a system that worked great, slowed down and then stopped working altogether? No. Has it been affected by the wet weather? Has it been affected by over- betting and prices being affected? No and No.
I don’t think any of the above are even worth considering. If there was some underlying stats that this was based on or evidence or reasons why prices would significantly change then I might entertain those theories, but there isn’t and none of those hold any water. Sometimes things just happen and you cant explain them, I see it as a futile exercise trying to explain a why several horses haven’t won – other horses beat them to the finish line and that’s it.
The facts are that we’ve a set of results that undoubtedly look worse now than they did a few months ago, however we still have a system that has achieved a profit of around 28pts and ROI of about 6% backing at the very short end of the market. Given enough time you’ll get freakish looking results, in terms of either a winning run or a losing run with any system.
There are no exceptions to this. It could be that we’ve seen both freakishly good results and bad, the kind of grouping of results that occurs maybe only every few years, all in the space of 1.5 years, the only way to really tell would be to continue to follow.
Take a look at the below graph:
That is EXACTLY the same results – I’ve just changed the order a bit. Does it change your view of it?
It must be remembered that whilst past performance is the best indicator that we’ve got of future performance, there is no definitive predictor. Again, and a hate to have to keep barking it out, but it all boils down to being able to take a really long term view.
I don’t believe that the theory on this is duff, and I know that by taking early prices with BOG that there is a quantifiable and significant advantage over SP that should make this profitable. The recommended bank for the Favs was 30pts, so at -17.55 we are well into that without it having bust yet. I set my staking out so that I could afford to lose 30pts, and I’ll personally be carrying on with this until either one year is up (when I review my whole portfolio) , or it busts the bank.
My thoughts on Racing Systems
So are racing systems too much bother, or always doomed to failure?
I don’t believe so. My beliefs remain unchanged about the benefits and drawbacks of systems, but its important that you understand the difference between them, especially when you are committing funds towards following them.
Lets take Winning Racing Tips for example.
I firmly believe that each race is totally unique and in an ideal world, every single possible variable and characteristic of every runner in that race needs to be taken into account before building and opinion of the likely chances of each runner and measuring that up against the available odds to determine value. (In the case of WRT Each Way Value) Now that doesn’t mean to say that I price up each runner when I look for my selections for WRT, but what I’m saying is that when you follow a tipster or do your own analysis, you’ve that human element that always gives you an edge over a system. From my point of view that’s why I’ll always prefer human picks over system picks.
Of course human picks can be totally useless, and aren’t immune to losing runs, (Tommo anyone?) and can also be negatively affected by human emotion, when fear of losing or over confidence can affect judgement. Systems are immune to these human pitfalls and will carry on regardless. Its kind of like “real pilot” vs “auto pilot”, and an auto pilot is great but you still want a real one sitting there just in case. With systems I think the key is to obviously select and build them wisely, but also to understand that they always likely to be more volatile than human picked selections. Therefore risk should be spread out and its very important that you stick to a staking plan and maintain discipline.
There were also two free systems that I gave away called “Bumper Profits” and “Top Value”. Since 19/9 The Bumpers system is -2.5pts from 28 selections @ SP, with lots of 2nds. The Claimers System is +3.38 pts from 19 selections, again to SP. You can download these from here: http://winningracingsystems.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Winningracingsysfree.pdf
Winning Racing Systems is currently closed to new members but will reopen next year.
Winning Racing Tips is open and you can join now and claim £70 off (40%) a 6 month membership by using code ED669 on the sign up form.
Out of his home office in Canvey Island, Paul Ruffy has been helping people turn a profit year on year since 2006 he now runs both bettingprofitsbulletin.com and matchdayprofits.com His goal is to help people make money through betting, without losing a fortune in the process!