The Cheltenham Festival kicks off next week and I’ve been looking over the trends, offers, and stats trying to uncover the each way value bets for you.
I decided to put it all in a video for you as I know there’s almost too much written info to take in around this time.
My each way value analysis is explained in the above video, and for your reference here is my written analysis:
Arkle Trophy (Tuesday)
This is the first top heavy market of the festival with market leader Sprinter Sacre, odds on.
The stats back up both opposing the favourite and backing those just behind the market leader.
In addition this is Paddypower’s big special offer race, and they are refunding all win bets (and win part of each way bets) if Sprinter Sacre wins.
So if there’s one bet you MUST be having its in this race with Paddypower.
9 of the last 10 winners of this race were placed between 2nd and 5th in the betting.
Horses priced 10-1 and above have produced only 7 placed runners and no winners from 89 qualifiers.
Our each way candidates are therefore Al Ferof at around 11/4 currently.
Cue Card, best priced 7/1, Menorah 10/1 and Blackstairmountain at 16/1.
Blackstairmountain is a bit of dark horse having only run three Chases, winning two and disappointing last time in reported unsuitable ground.
Menorah I do like, he’s won 3 from 4 round Cheltenham and has won the 2 Chases that he’s completed. The two non completions are the worry though. Cue Card famously won the 2010 Champion Bumper in brilliant style but finished unplaced last year in the Supreme Novices when a short priced favourite. He’s won 2 Novice Chases and ran a good race giving weight to Bobs Worth at Newbury, his jockey is convinced the 2m Arkle will suit, however I’m not sure he’s ever going to be as good with obstacles in front as he was without!
Al Ferof is the clear 2nd Favourite here and is a borderline each way price, but with the Paddypower concession he’s obviously got to be worth betting.
Al Ferof won last season’s Supreme Novice Hurdle at the Festival and won his first two Chase starts this season at Graded level, but it was his 3rd place behind older more experienced Chasers last time out that really marked his case for this, when within 5L of the 166 rated Somersby. Market leader Sprinter Sacre has been given a rating of 161 so clearly there’s not much between them from the handicapper’s viewpoint.
My advice here is to dutch the four mentioned contenders with Paddypower, for total stake of upto £100, as they will refund losing bets if Sprinter Sacre wins this offer should be taken advantage of. I will personally be weighting my dutch bet towards both Al Ferof and Menorah though.
From a purely each way perspective, ignoring the Paddypower concession entirely,
Menorah would be my each way pick, as at a best priced 10/1 he looks value given his Cheltenham form.
And I’d also consider Al Ferof each way but perhaps doubled up with something else each way, to give a bigger potential place return.
Champion Hurdle (Tuesday)
Reigning Champ Hurricane Fly stands out a mile in this having won 12 of 14 hurdles.
Priced at 4/6 generally it does open the market up for each way betting but this looks quite open when you take him out of the betting making it difficult and not the best each way race you will find. Further adding to my concern here is the fact that this race has seen winners come in at 22-1,16-1 and 10-1 in recent years, so you wouldn’t want to rule out many. That said there are some positive trends:
8 of the last 10 winners won last time out, 9 of the last 10 winners had raced over hurdles at least 10 times in their careers. Of the potential each way horses to oppose “The Fly” this really only leave Binocular, who connections will surely feel they have something to prove with as he missed his chance to defend his crown last year after a drugs offence.
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle (Tuesday)
A race revolving around Quevega, who has won this race the last three years running. At
best price of 4/7 currently, it certainly opens up the betting for each way, but this is a race that has only been run 4 times, and as such it’s a difficult one to deal with. My advice is wait until next week when its clear what horses are running in this one.
Queen Mother Champion Chase (Wednesday)
This would at first glance appear to be another toss up between Sizing Europe and Big Zeb, and it still may be, but after Big Zeb disappointing last time out I think I’d prefer to look elsewhere for my each way value.
An interesting stat I found:
The last 13 Arkle winners to run in the following year’s Champion Chase all finished in the first three (6 won)
Now last years Arkle winner, Captain Chris wont be running in this, but the horse that was a close 2nd, Finian’s Rainbow should be running. Finian’s Rainbow has won 5 and been placed 2nd on the other two of his 7 Chase runs. Somersby, his conqueror last time out currently has entries in this and the Ryanair Chase, if however he were to take up his engagement in this, the 10/1 would look a very nice price. And been as you can bet that non runner no bet, that looks a price worth taking.
Each Way Value
Finian’s Rainbow @ 5/1 Lads
AND Somersby @ 10/1 Skybet
World Hurdle (Thursday)
This race is all about Big Bucks and he is certainly one of the most solid favourites you’ll find. He first won at Cheltenham on 1st January 2009 and has since won every one of his 14 races since then including the last three renewals of this race. The closest one to him in the betting is Oscar Whisky, 3rd in the Champion Hurdle last year, he has lots of ability but is untested at this trip and may only be running here as his trainer has Binocular in the Champion Hurdle.
The stats show that 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting, and all 10 were priced 8/1 or shorter. So along with Oscar Whisky, last years Champion Hurdle 4th, Thousand Stars is the other live contender.
So whilst the two that stand out as possible each way value are Oscar Whisky @ 4/1 and Thousand Stars @ 9/1, however that’s if you can bring yourself to oppose Big Bucks – and I cannot.
The Gold Cup (Friday)
The Gold Cup is being billed as match between Kauto Star and Long Run, which is fairness, it does look to be. This can be a dangerous assumption to make, as was the case in 2010 when Imperial Commander surprised Denman and Kauto to win at 7/1. It isn’t the most obvious race to look for each way value but I’m of the belief that one horse does represent value each way in this.
Firstly though, the stats show that runners priced 8/1 or bigger have proved no winners from 122 runners. Horses at the top of the market have dominated this race and indeed you could have a profit blindly backing the favourite over the last 10 years. With that in mind we have 3 horses to consider backing each way against Long Run.
Kauto Star, Grands Crus and Burton Port. Grands Crus would be an interesting runner, as he’s only defeats in his last 9 runs have been twice to Big Bucks and once in France when the ground was most likely against him. But he’s favourite in the RSA on Wednesday and it wouldn’t seem sensible to run a Chaser with such little experience against the likes of Long Run and Kauto Star. Burton Port looked like he could have beaten Long Run last time out, and is improving, but he was getting 10lb that day and for me is quite unlikely to be good enough in this provided the top two give their running.
So that brings me on to Kauto Star, a horse that needs no introduction. His Gold Cup record reads 121F3. So placed in 4 of the last 5 Gold Cup renewals he has a wider record showing a place strike rate of 83% in Grade 1 Chases, to me he’s looked better than ever this season, bringing his record against Long Run to 2-2, and perhaps more importantly, having won the most recent meeting. His recent training fall shouldn’t be ignored but I’m sure he wouldn’t unless 110% and with non runner no bet, he looks a cracking each way bet at 4/1.
Free Cheltenham Profit Pack:
As I mentioned in the presentation there is an interesting free download available for you to digest go to this page to get access.
Hope you enjoy!
PS. Please comment/poke fun/discuss below.
Out of his home office in Canvey Island, Paul Ruffy has been helping people turn a profit year on year since 2006 he now runs both bettingprofitsbulletin.com and matchdayprofits.com His goal is to help people make money through betting, without losing a fortune in the process!