Every year I write a review of how my tips have performed.
This is normally for my members only but I thought that it wouldn’t do any harm to share it with a wider audience, and maybe give an insight into my service.
2011 Review
An un-spectacular but solid year has passed adding more profit to the pot for my loyal subscribers. Let’s take a look at the overall stats for the year:
259 bets.
171.35 pts staked.
+20.77 pts profit.
12.12% Return on Investment.
10 out of the 12 months showed a profit, albeit a small one in several months. But once again, we bumped into a real bad month, this time in August when we lost 7.68pts.
Just looking back for one moment at that month of August, as I find it helps to look back to see if there are any mistakes that I can perhaps learn from and it can help to put things into perspective.
The month was basically a catalogue of things going wrong for us, more than just a case of horses running below expectation. There was several horses that traded very low in running yet somehow managed to finish unplaced, including one matched at 1.01 to be placed, and another trading at 1.10 to win yet failing. We had another horse suffer a terrible (fatal) fall, and there were several occasions when I’d made a tough call between two horses only to see the selection in 4th and the one I’d passed on win. On the 23rd August I found two selections for an each way double but only put them out as a “mention” (which I normally don’t do) as oppose to an account bet. They both went on to win for what would have been an 18/1 double. Looking back I had perhaps let the negativity of the losing run get to me and lost some degree of confidence. Of course the losing run did eventually end, and by the end of the year I’d clawed back those losses and added a little more to the pot.
That was perhaps a lesson in holding my nerve, which ordinarily I find I’m good at.
As a side note I should add that it has been suggested that the time of year, namely July/August time, has something to do with the results, I do not believe this to be the case at all. I judge races on a race by race basis and experience has taught me that this is the best way to operate. Nevertheless I do plan on taking a proper break in 2012, most likely to coincide with the Olympics (27 July-12 August), as I haven’t taken time out in the past.
So an overall profit of just shy of 21pts for the year.
Not close to the usual target of 40, which I still think is achievable, but not bad either.
What I do need to draw attention to though is the staking levels, and the standard bank that I’ve historically recommended of 40pts. Basically this looks too big.
Reducing this to 30pts seems perfectly tangible and would essentially mean better returns and a more realistic target.
The underlying problem is that my recommended stakes have been dwindling over the years.
To demonstrate this I’ve analysed 5 years worth of tips/stakes:
2011 – 259 bets, 171.35 pts staked, Ave advised stake: 0.33 pt e/w.
2010 – 256 bets, 193.4 pts staked, Ave advised stake: 0.38 pt e/w.
2009 – 296 bets, 256.2 pts staked, Ave advised stake: 0.43 pt e/w.
2008 – 335 bets, 291.41 pts staked, Ave advised stake: 0.43 pt e/w.
2007 – 377 bets, 444.95 pts staked, Ave advised stake: 0.59 pt e/w.
This is a problem that has often affected long standing tipsters and I think its worth noting. I have to hold my hands up and say that it’s my fault, but I think it’s just a sub-conscious thing that is part of human nature to “protect what you have”.
So with this in mind, and rather than attempting to “re-program” my brain out of an established 5 year habit overnight, I’m simply going to suggest a different bank size.
Now if you’re happy that you’ve got your own staking levels sorted then feel free to ignore this advice. But considering that we can deduce from the above that the stakes are now almost half of what they started out as, I think it’s perfectly ok to operate a 30 pt bank. I will go as far as to suggest that a bank of between 20-30 pts could be considered, with a 20pt bank perhaps suiting someone with smaller capital to play with. (alongside an acceptance of a higher risk.)
Taking what I’ve covered into account this would mean that someone operating from a bank of just £1500 would have made a pretty decent profit of £1050 (before fees) in 2011. A fairly decent return for very little “work”, from an exceedingly low risk approach.
There wasn’t much in the way of spectacular wins to report on in 2011, apart from the one poor month it was a pretty consistent year, the biggest win was Tetlami on the 3rd December, which returned a 4pt profit thanks to an SP of 8/1 and Ladbrokes “best odds guarantee”. There was several occasions when we “hit the bar” with bigger potential returns, but perhaps they’ll come in 2012!?
The below graph highlights the last 4 years worth of profits, based on staking just £25 a point.
Bonus Bets report.
The bonus bets overall made a profit in 2011 to the tune of £179.30 from a £1000 bank.
There were 113 bets and the ROI was 8%. All the profit however was due to one big winning patent that we landed in January, when we got all three draws up for a £352.91 return. The slide that followed that probably included too many poor football bets and perhaps that is an area for attention. That said there were many longer priced bets and therefore a couple of winners would have made a big difference. Overall though I can report a profit overall on the year which is not to be sniffed at, and its worth remembering that the bonus bets are simply a free additional service that I provide. I think the way forward with these is to be even more selective and specialize, such as additional side bets on horses to be placed (when odds allow).
So all being said and done another profitable year.
Entering 2012 Winning Racing Tips goes into its 7th calendar year, my each way value approach is as strong as ever and I feel well equipped to deliver yet more profits.
Prices remain unchanged and I believe the service offers exceptional value for money.
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