As you may know already, bookmakers offering refunds if one leg of your acca lets you down has become quite a big thing over the last couple of years.
Its one of my favourite offers as if used efficiently it can swing with the odds firmly in your favour.
The introduction of such refund offers has seen the development of various ways of taking advantage of them – “Accumulator Generator” and Oddsmonkey’s “Acca Matcher” are two such examples. Now I’ve had a look at both of these approaches but I’m not going to be testing them out with my money –
Why? Well not necessarily because they are bad, or that they don’t work, but because I value my bookmaker accounts, and my time.
Now I’m not saying you cannot use these methods to make money, In fact I recommend the sister site to Accumulator Generator, “bonus bagging”, and oddsmonkey’s features are very useful – they do all have the potential to make you money. However what I will say is their use has a two major negative affects.
You see they are using a mathematical model to work out the “value” in real money terms of a freebet refund, this makes sense.
But it relies on betting right up to the maximum stakes of the offer, normally very short odds, often on minor teams/matches, and often needs matches to be played sequentially i.e not at the same time or with any overlap. In addition to all of that, if you’re doing it to make a decent profit you’ll need to do a lot of them and probably won’t have time to do much other betting, certainly on those accounts.
Now think about this for a moment – how easy do you think it would be for a bookmaker to spot this activity, given there’s are four or five markers that will highlight your activity?
Yes, very easy.
Do they want customers that simply use calculators to extract repeated small profits from them time and time again, draining the bottom line profits?
No, of course not. Who would?
I have a lot of empathy with punters who get “gubbed”, restricted and/or have bets refused. I’ve found myself in the same boat often enough.
But really as punters we must look at ourselves and realise we are our own worst enemy here. Punters think they’re being clever, but in the long run using solely matched betting tactics and exploiting refund offers is perhaps doing nothing more than scoring an own goal.
I’ve already started to see bookmakers changing their acca terms, and a few remove the refund offers altogether. And its interesting to note Sportingbet have restricted their new refund offer to matches that are being played on one day only.
So the end result of all this is that accounts get closed (or gubbed) and terms get changed.
But is there another way?
Well lets consider the downsides of the “scalping” type approach:
- lots of lays to place
- lots of bet management
- time consuming
- No fun
- potential to go wrong with prices and/or incorrect lays
What if you could use the Acca insurance promotions in a better way that:
- Still had 20%+ ROI
- Low number of bets with maximum stakes not required to make decent profits
- Not as likely to get you branded a “bonus abuser” and get you gubbed
- Option on which bookie to use/not limited to one firm per bet
- Was actually a huge amount to fun to operate
- Enabled you to bet with cash, in betting shops
Well I’ve found that all of the above is possible and what I’m going to share with you now is exactly how I attack the Acca offers, why it offers you a big edge and how you can stay under the radar whilst doing it.
The Bankers and Base Method
This is my own method which I’ve developed over the last 2 seasons which has proven to be very profitable.
The objective here is similar to the that of the software based approaches mentioned that are targeting the freebet refunds, however it is not the same.
My objective is to land winning five folds, not to land a free bet. This is a very important distinction and one that kind of generically sets us apart and ensures that we come across as punters that are playing the game in the spirit of things.
So the objective is to land winning five folds (or sometimes 6 folds). Now realistically this isn’t going to be possible all the time, but I try to ensure that I’ve at least a very good chance of getting four from five, so that when I do lose the Acca I’m at least getting a free bet back.
So how to get at least four winners very regularly and also land decent price winners when you do win?
This is where the “Bankers and Base selections” come in.
What I do here is try and find three selections which are going to be my “bankers”.
These will typically be in the 1.05 to 1.33 odds range.
I’ll then find my “base” selections. These are going to be at bigger prices, typically in the 1.5 to 2.5 range and they are what ensures that when the Acca wins, its at a decent price.
If the accumulator can be build up starting with 3 “banker”selections that look “rock solid”, on paper at least, then it allows a little more adventure on the remaining two. The remaining two “base”selections are still quite solid favourites, but maybe not so obvious.
I want to avoid picking the 5 shortest teams on the coupon in any case as this will not result in any kind of price.
So, by including three real short ones, in the 1.05 to 1.33 odds bracket, and then supplementing these with another two selections in the 1.50 to 2.5 odds range – I’m virtually turning this five fold into a double! With money back if one of the two doesn’t win!
I can normally put together an accumulator with a half-decent chance of returning odds of around 3-1 to 8-1. And a solid chance of getting four from five at least.
Using this approach I’ve been able to acheive the following results
|With Acca Insurance||159||44||60||55||62%||+104.23||66%|
|W/O Acca Insurance||159||44||115||-||28%||+68.48||43%|
The above table represents actual profits from bets struck using Acca insurance offers. I’ve used a standard calculation assuming that 65% of the freebets value is returned. Now those that know how to effectively “cash out” freebets will know this is actually very conservative so in reality the profits using the Acca insurance were better.
I’ve also used the same odds for calculating the “without Acca insurance” profit figures, this also is perhaps under-stating the profits somewhat, as in reality if you weren’t bothered about acca insurance, or couldn’t get it due to accounts being “gubbed” you’d still likely be able to shop around for best prices which would often mean higher combined odds that what I’ve actually achieved.
Now the caveat. I’m sure you’re aware that simply picking teams in certain odds ranges will not by itself provide you with a winning football betting system.
I never simply use the odds on offer to judge the chances of a team winning. In fact my approach has become more and more refined so that I’m analysing a number of matches across the leagues and cherry picking what I think represent the best value prices about teams winning.
I might have 10 or more potential “banker” selections and I’ll whittle those down to the very best ones based on stats, form, opinion, price and other factors. I’ll then adopt a similar approach with the “base” selections.
All of my selections no matter what price they are will have been thoroughly researched, this doesn’t take a long time necessarily, but the notion of just assuming teams will win because of the reputation or price has to cast aside.
Here’s my pointers for picking winning selections:
- Look for home teams with very solid records and form
- Look for reasons why they might slip up, ie distractions, injuries etc that might not be obvious.
- Take a close look at their opponents and avoid in form teams
- Winning form is more reliable than losing form
- Consider strong away sides that are facing weaker opposition
- Consider the top clubs at home even against decent opposition
- Look at head to head form
- Pay close attention to recent form
- Look at shot stats and possession stats
- Read other opinions to back up your own
- Look for value above all else
So I hope you’ll have a go at this approach, If I can make it work you can too.
That said if you want to shortcut to success with this you can back the exact same Accas that I’m backing by joining my matchdayprofits service. It’s inexpensive to join and comes with a 90 day money back guarantee.